財務學教授：股票、歷史、政治、經濟、商業、科技 &「普通人的自由主義」作者
Edward Avedisian, 5/15/2023
愛德華·阿維迪西安(Edward Avedisian)，亞美尼亞移民之子，過著中產階級的生活，擔任波士頓流行樂團管弦樂團的單簧管演奏者。在2022年去世前，他捐贈了超過2億美元，其中包括1億美元給波士頓大學醫學院。他的全部財富均來自股票市場。他是如何做到的？
像阿維迪西安這樣的故事有很多，最終都過上了滿足的生活。正如我在《成功股票市場策略》一書中所概述，唯一能帶來幸福的兩種策略是被動指數投資和成長股投資。然而，即使有40年的複利增長，被動指數投資也無法從中產階級薪資中累積2億美元。因此，累積可觀財富並過上滿足生活的唯一方法是投資成長股。
阿維迪西安大量投資於科技股，如微軟。自其首次公開募股以來，微軟的股價上漲了2400多倍，而阿維迪西安在這段成長期一直持有股份。他深入了解微軟的業務，對其競爭優勢印象深刻。阿維迪西安會閱讀公開公司的招股說明書和年報，常在隨樂團旅行時的飛行途中閱讀。他曾對亞當·西塞尔說：「不研究這些的人是傻瓜。你可以從中了解公司在做什麼、誰在經營，以及特別是誰想進場、誰想離場。我從不喜歡股東正在賣出的公司。你想要我的錢，但你自己卻在逃跑？這些細節都在文件中。」
與許多成功的成長股投資者一樣，阿維迪西安並不試圖預測市場時機，始終保持全額投資。他說：「我只是讓它順其自然，市場總會回來。」然而，阿維迪西安採用了一種與大多數成長股投資者不同的策略：他使用了槓桿。他會在股票上漲趨勢時加碼投資。在這方面，他的做法類似於傑西·利弗莫爾，儘管阿維迪西安警告不要進行融資交易。他明白融資交易的風險：當你正確時，它能帶來顯著收益，但也可能導致全盤皆輸。我在書中指出，趨勢追隨者很少有幸福的結局，因為他們承受了巨大的精神壓力。借來的錢只會加劇這種壓力。
阿維迪西安能使用槓桿是因為他不需要這些錢。他55歲才結婚，沒有子女，過著簡單的生活，將所有時間和金錢投入投資。他說：「我沒有任何義務，即使融資交易失敗，我也不會一無所有。」
從阿維迪西安的人生故事中，我得出結論：成長股策略確實有效。我們只需要找到幾支有潛力的成長股並長期持有。他的故事也解答了我對自己策略的一個疑問。阿維迪西安並非像持有微軟這樣一直持有所有股票。當股票表現不佳時，他會退出。他密切關注企業是興盛還是衰退。我喜歡這種做法。我不贊成像彼得·林奇和沙德·羅這樣的投資者遵循的「只需一個決定的股票」規則。他們購買高表現的成長股，幾乎從不賣出。沙德·羅聲稱賣出好股票有兩個問題：(1) 顯著的稅務負擔，(2) 難以找到替代股票。然而，我認為許多優秀股票的生命週期越來越短。羅的最新13F文件顯示，他自2015年以來一直持有PayPal。在這段持有期間，羅獲得了10倍的回報，但隨後幾乎全部回吐。
儘管如此，保持不動的風險較低。大多數人，即使是對成長股信心很高的人，仍然交易過於頻繁。遵循「只需一個決定的股票」規則可以幫助投資者避免過度交易，從而減少潛在的損失。在成長加碼與適時退出之間找到平衡是成功投資的關鍵，正如愛德華·阿維迪西安的人生故事所示。
Edward Avedisian, the son of Armenian immigrants, lived a middle-class life as a clarinet player for the Boston Pops Esplanade Orchestra. Before he passed away in 2022, he donated over $200 million, including $100 million to the Boston University Medical School. His entire wealth was amassed in the stock market. How did he achieve this?
There are many stories similar to Avedisian’s, all culminating in a content life. As I outlined in my book, Successful Stock Market Strategies, the only two strategies that can lead to happiness are passive indexing and growth stock investing. However, passive indexing cannot generate $200 million from a middle-class salary, even with 40 years of compounding. Hence, the only way to accumulate substantial wealth and live a content life is to invest in growth stocks.
Avedisian invested heavily in tech stocks, such as Microsoft. Since its IPO, MSFT has increased its share value more than 2,400-fold, and Avedisian held his shares throughout this growth. He had a deep understanding of Microsoft's business and was impressed by its competitive advantages. Avedisian would read prospectuses and annual reports of public companies, often during flights while traveling with the Orchestra. He once told Adam Seessel, “Anyone not studying these is a fool. You find out what the company’s doing, who’s running it, and especially who wants in and who wants out. I never liked companies where shareholders were selling. You want my money, but you’re heading for the hills? All these kinds of details are in that document.”
Like many successful growth stock investors, Avedisian didn't attempt to time the market and remained fully invested. “I just let it ride,” he said, “The market always comes back.” However, Avedisian employed one tactic that set him apart from most growth stock investors: he used leverage. He would pyramid his investments when riding an uptrending stock. In this regard, his approach resembled that of Jesse Livermore, though Avedisian cautioned against margin trading. He understood the peril of margin trading: it can lead to significant gains when you're right, but can also result in complete loss. In my book, I point out that trend followers rarely have a happy ending due to the mental stress they endure. Borrowed money simply exacerbates this stress.
Avedisian was able to use leverage because he didn't need the money. He married at 55 and had no children. He lived a simple life and devoted all his time and money to investing. “I had no obligations,” he said, “I could’ve lost my shirt” with margin trading.
My takeaway from Avedisian’s life story is that the growth stock strategy indeed works. We just need to identify a few promising growth stocks and hold them. His story also clarified a question about my strategy. Avedesian didn't hold all his stocks like Microsoft. He got out when the stocks were faltering. He paid detailed attention to whether the business was waxing or waning. I like that. I'm not a fan of the “one-decision stock” rule, followed by investors like Peter Lynch and Shad Rowe. They purchase high-performing growth stocks and almost never sell. Shad Rowe claimed that selling good stocks has two problems: (1) significant tax liability, and (2) challenges in finding replacement stocks. However, I believe that the life cycles of many great stocks are becoming increasingly shorter. Rowe’s latest 13F filings show that he has owned PayPal since 2015. During this holding period, Rowe made a 10-fold return, but has since almost given it all back.
Nevertheless, it's less risky to err on the side of maintaining positions. Most people, even those with high confidence in growth stocks, still trade too often. Sticking to the "one-decision stock" rule can help investors avoid overtrading, and thus reduce potential downsides. The balance between holding for growth and knowing when to exit is key to successful investment, as demonstrated by Edward Avedisian's life story.
Back to homepage.